• Thursday, 28 March 2024
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David Schenker: The only way to defeat ISIS in Syria is to also defeat the Assad regime.

David Schenker: The only way to defeat ISIS in Syria is to also defeat the Assad regime.
Gulan: In the beginning of 2015, two big conferences at the international level were held. They were Davos and Munich Security Conferences. In Munich Security Conference, a report was prepared entitled “Collapsing Order”. However, in Davos, the collapse of world order which came about after the cold war was emphasized. Yet, John Kerry and Joseph Biden rejected the idea and said that the world order hasn’t collapsed yet. In your opinion, as the whole world feels the risks, why is the U.S. hiding it?


David Schenker: At present, Washington does not appear to be as concerned as other capitals to the challenges facing the longstanding global system. The Obama Administration is not “hiding” the deterioration of security around the world. It just doesn’t appear to believe the threats are as serious as other states believe they are. In particular, the Obama Administration seems to believe its policies on Russia, Syria, and Iran, are working. Most states around the world see developments related to Russia, Syria, and Iran, as failures of US policy and evidence of a shrinking US role in the world.


Gulan: The challenges the world is facing in 2015 are geopolitical changes, not only in Middle East, but also in Europe especially after the invasion of Crimea by Russia and rejecting Ukrainian membership of EU. Don’t you agree that this is also a return to another cold war?

David Schenker: I am not an expert in Russian affairs, but the role currently being played by Putin’s Russia is undoubtedly unhelpful, and, in the case of Ukraine, predatory. Even as the Russian economy is deteriorating, authoritarianism is on the rise in Russia. It is an unhealthy combination that appears to be putting the state on a collision course with the west.


Gulan: Another problem for European Security is the existence of extremist terrorist groups, as we saw the attacks on Charlie Hebdo few weeks ago in France. This means no state alone can provide its security and everyone needs a coalition at the security and military level. Do you think that in the current circumstances of the world a coalition can be formed?

David Schenker: The threat of ISIS has not yet risen to a level where states will agree to cooperate, contributing both blood and treasure to confront the terrorist organization. So far, the coalition that has been put in place has not taken robust actions to “defeat” ISIS—as President Obama had pledged—but is merely conducting airstrikes to somewhat limit additional ISIS territorial gains. In fact, in the six months since the airstrikes began, ISIS has actually conquered more territory in Iraq and Syria, not to mention Libya and elsewhere. Hopefully, what happened in Paris—and now in Copenhagen-- will shift the debate in Europe, to get European states to take a more robust approach to security, counter-radicalisation, and the integration of their Muslim minorities.

Gulan: Since the emerging of Syrian revolution against Assad’s regime in 2011, the international Security Council hasn’t been able to shape a concrete strategy for dealing with Assad’s regime, and hasn’t also been able to take any decisions. As a result, eight to nine million Syrian citizens have been displaced and hundreds of thousands have been killed and injured. Don’t you agree that the current situation of Syrian implies that the International Security Council has no solution and is paralyzed from taking any decisions?

David Schenker: With more than 200,000 mostly Sunni Muslims killed in Syria, what is occurring is beginning to resemble a genocide. Sadly, the UN is not an effective organization in preventing atrocities. And the Obama Administration—which is so very focused on cutting a nuclear deal with Iran—appears afraid to take actions against Iran, or the Assad regime, for fear of scuttling an agreement. The UN Security Council is paralyzed—Assad has a great partner in Moscow. But more importantly, the Obama Administration is not inclined to take a leadership role in trying to bring this conflict to an end. It’s not clear the US would succeed, but the Obama Administration is not committed to ending the regime atrocities. The focus now, regrettably, is only on ISIS.

Gulan: Experts who are closely observe the regional situation of Middle East mention that the main problem of the area is the countries that were formed by Sykes-Picot Agreement following the collapse of Ottoman Empire because the borders haven’t taken the ethnic and religious diversity into consideration. If this is the core of the problem, why are not attempts available for re-drawing the regional map based on a modern manner?

David Schenker: Notwithstanding regional turmoil, the borders of the region have proven rather remarkably durable. In Iraq and Syria, there may be some changes, though. What is happening now in Syria is in fact ethnic cleansing by the Assad regime, part of an effort to secure the Alawite Community. The Kurds have a de facto state in Northern Iraq. Generally speaking, though, the US does not believe it is productive to re-draw the ME map along sectarian/religious lines. There is so much Sunni-Shiite animosity right now, in any event, the borders would not likely be secure.

Gulan: Regarding the Islamic Caliphate of ISIS, we see that the regional countries are dealing with the event based on their own interests. Some of the regional countries are in favor of Assad’s remaining in power, and the others are secretly working for toppling Assad’s regime by aiding the terrorist groups. In your opinion, how can the anti-terrorism international coalition defeat ISIS with these available problems?

David Schenker: The only way to defeat ISIS in Syria is to also defeat the Assad regime. Assad, Iran, and Hezbollah’s ongoing slaughter of Sunnis is fueling support for ISIS. Working with Assad and Iran only convinces Sunnis that the west is seeking a “Shiite Solution.” This will not work.

Gulan: The only available force that has been able to hold ISIS back in Middle East is the Peshmarga forces of Kurdistan region. To what extent does the world have to support Peshmarga forces of Kurdistan region in order to defeat ISIS terrorists?

David Schenker: The Peshmarga, with western backing, have done a good job in defending Kurdish territory against ISIS. But the Peshmarga are a defensive, not an expeditionary force. Going forward, the Kurds will continue to receive significant materiel support from the west to help them defend themselves against ISIS. Ultimately, though, other boots on the ground—Iraqi/Syrian/Arab—will be required to defeat the terrorists.

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