March 5 marks the 21st anniversary of the Great Kurdish Uprising against the notorious genocidal dictatorship of Saddam Hussein. To what extent can the Kurds learn from this event and apply it to their future. Specifically should the Kurds move from their semi-independent or autonomous region (the KRG) to full independence now that the United States has withdrawn its troops from Iraq?Federalism or Independence?Given the extraordinary divisions in Iraqi society, the haste with which the permanent Iraqi constitution was drafted and then approved in an attempt to meet specific datelines, the perception that the document was being overly influenced by the United States, and the supposed need to renegotiate important elements of the constitution in order to satisfy the Sunni Arabs, it has been very difficult, but not impossible, for a permanent Iraqi government to be successfully implemented. These limited chances for success will be reduced to a cipher if the constitution does not continue to meet the just demands of the Kurds for true federalism. Given the genocidal history and earlier repression of the previous Iraqi regime and de facto Kurdish independence since 1991, no surer recipe for failure and subsequentcivil war exists than to force the Kurds to accept anything less than meaningful ethnic federalism. The Kurds would either have vetoed anything less in the Constitutional ratification process or would walk away from Iraq if this issue were to be revisited for the mere majority to decide unfavorably upon in the future.Unfortunately for the future of Iraq, the Kurdish gain sometimes seems to be the Arabs’ loss. The constitution the Kurds have demanded as their price to remain in Iraq is the very constitution the Arabs hesitate to accept. Many Arabs consider the Iraqi Kurds traitors for having supported the United States in the 2003 War. On the other hand, many Kurds see the Arabs as chauvinistic nationalists who oppose Kurdish rights because they would end up detaching territory from the Arab world. The future of Iraq, of course, has become even more uncertain given the withdrawal of U.S. troops at the end of 2011.Those who criticized the so-called Kurdish veto power in the referendum to ratify the Iraqi Constitutionin 2005 in order to assure the Kurds of their future in Iraq should remember that Article VII of the U.S. Constitution provided that it would not be ratified until at least nine of the thirteen states ratified it and then only for those who had voted affirmatively. If such an extraordinary majority were called for given the relatively miniscule divisions then present in the United States, surely a similar right exists for the Kurds today.What is more, Iraq lacks a democratic tradition. For one to develop requires the existence of an implicit consensus on the legitimacy of the underlying order and trust on the part of the minority that the majority will not abuse its power. These, however, are thevery ingredients that have been in pitifully short supply in modern Iraq. Moreover, federalism is a sophisticated division and sharing of powers between a central government and its constituent parts; it would probably demand, as a prerequisite for its successful implementation, a democratic ethos. Trying to establish federalism in Iraq before that state is able to imbue a democratic tradition may be like trying to place the cart before the horse.Therefore, if a federal Iraq proves impossible to construct, why not an independent Iraqi Kurdish state? What would be so sacred about the territorial integrity of a possible failed state like Iraq that was becoming increasingly unstable? Indeed, within the past 20 years, both the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia broke up into numerous new states. Earlier, Singapore split off from Malaysia, Bangladesh from Pakistan, and more recently, Eritrea broke away from Ethiopia, East Timor from Indonesia, and Kosovo from Albania. The United Nations also has in the past officially approved self-determination for the Palestinians and black South African majority. Why do the Arabs so rightfully demand a state for the Palestinians, but so hypocritically deny one for the Iraqi Kurds? Why do the Turks demand self-determination for the Turkish Cypriots, but deny the same for the Iraqi Kurds? For the Kurds and their supporters, the current situation at times seems neither fair nor logical. Indeed, a strong case can be made that the injustice done to the Kurds contributes to the instability in the Middle East!The Iraqi Kurds, however, would be well advised to proceed with the consent of the United States, Turkey, and their other involved regional neighbors because without their consent an independent Iraqi Kurdistan would prove impossible to sustain for obvious geopolitical reasons. The KRG is a small landlocked entity surrounded by potential enemies whose continuing tacit acceptance is required for the KRG to continue to exist. Thus, the first step to achieve this seemingly impossible task for achieving Kurdish independence is for the Iraqi Kurds to be seen giving their all in trying to make a democratic federal Iraq work. If such an Iraq proves impossible to achieve, the Iraqi Kurds could not be blamed for this failure and then would be seen as having the right, in the name of stability that also would benefit the United States, Turkey, and other neighboring states, to move toward independence.At that point, the Iraqi Kurds must convince these states that in return for their support for Iraqi Kurdish independence, an independent Iraqi Kurdistan would not foment rebellion among the Kurds in neighboring states either directly or indirectly. These states’ guarantee of an independent Iraqi Kurdish state would be a powerful incentive for the Iraqi Kurds to satisfy them on this point. Furthermore, the Iraqi Kurds must proceed in a manner that their neighbors including the Iraqi Arabs would perceive to be fair to them. This will probably mean compromise on the Kurdish demands for complete control of oil-rich Kirkuk. In addition, the Iraqi Kurds should encourage Turkey’s begrudging democratic reforms that will help lead to eventual Turkish membership in the EU and thus contribute to solving the Kurdish problem in Turkey without secession. The continuing process of Turkey seeking to join the EU contributes to Turkish reforms for its own Kurdish problem. Turkey’s fears about an independent Iraqi Kurdish state will continue to lessen since EU membership would guarantee Turkish territorial integrity. Furthermore, once Turkey joins the EU, the influence of the Turkish military on political decisions regarding such issues as the Iraqi Kurds would diminish, a work already in progress as Turkey’s candidacy proceeds and positive economic and political relations between Turkey and the KRG continue to grow. A more civilian-directed Turkish government within the EU would be less likely to fear an independent Iraqi Kurdish state. The late Turkish president Turgut Ozal’s imaginative initiatives toward the Kurds during the early 1990s illustrate that these arguments concerning Turkish–Kurdish cooperation are not divorced from reality. On the other hand, if Turkey were kept out of the EU, it would be more likely to continue to view the Kurdish issue through traditional national security issues hostile to an independent Iraqi Kurdish state. Cast adrift from both the EU and the United States, Turkey would be more likely to seek support from those who are very hostile to any concept of an independent Iraqi Kurdish state.Finally, the Kurds must avoid having their continuing divisions exploited. Repeatedly in the past, when presented with a strong Kurdistan in Iraq, the governments in Baghdad and the surrounding states of Turkey, Iran, and Syria have used Kurdish divisions to divide and rule them. Indeed, they stumbled upon a consociational model of multi-party elite and political accommodation within a still partially divided administrative and territorial system. So far, the Kurds have proven adept at maintaining their newly established, but still landlocked and isolated unity within a sea of still possible enemies.

Professor Michael M. Gunter
Tennessee Technological University
USA